Tony nominations were announced today, and per usual, my highly informed and thoroughly researched* predictions (in bold). Please note, these are not who I want to win, but I’m assuming will win based on a number of factors*.

(*a.k.a. guessing)

Best Play

Dividing the Estate
God of Carnage
Reasons to Be Pretty
33 Variations

Lots of actors nomed from this show and strong reviews make me lean to Carnage.

Best Musical

Billy Elliot, The Musical
Next to Normal
Rock of Ages
Shrek The Musical

It’s the season’s mega-hit and it’s a show you just can’t hate. Win.

Best Book of a Musical

Billy Elliot, The Musical
Next to Normal
Shrek The Musical
[Title of Show]

[Title of Show] and Next to Normal are both entirely original musicals, so they should win. But they won’t.

Best Original Score (Music and/or Lyrics) Written for the Theatre

Billy Elliot, The Musical
Next to Normal
9 to 5: The Musical
Shrek The Musical

As much as we want Dolly Parton to win this, I think Sir Elton John takes the trophy.

Best Revival of a Play

Joe Turner’s Come and Gone
Mary Stuart
The Norman Conquests
Waiting for Godot

Total guess.

Best Revival of a Musical

Guys and Dolls
Hair
Pal Joey
West Side Story

The critics went apeshit over Hair, so there you go. Sorry, Laurents.

Best Special Theatrical Event

Liza’s at The Palace
You’re Welcome America. A Final Night with George W. Bush
Slava’s Snowshow
Soul of Shaolin

Yeah, I’m not voting Liza because she basically did a concert and didn’t pass out. Which I guess should warrant some sort of award, but not a Tony. Based on the HBO performance, Will Ferrell’s show was a fun evening. I don’t know what Soul of Shaolin is. And Slava’s Snowshow has been around since the ice age.

Best Performance by a Leading Actor in a Play

Jeff Daniels, God of Carnage
Raúl Esparza, Speed-the-Plow
James Gandolfini, God of Carnage
Geoffrey Rush, Exit the King
Thomas Sadoski, Reasons to Be Pretty

Esparza deserves his Tony, and a special award for dealing with Jeremy Piven’s shit.

Best Performance by a Leading Actress in a Play

Hope Davis, God of Carnage
Jane Fonda, 33 Variations
Marcia Gay Harden, God of Carnage
Janet McTeer, Mary Stuart
Harriet Walter, Mary Stuart

From the clips I’ve seen, McTeer seems like a force. Although, I love Marcia Gay Harden. And no Carla Gugino?? WTF!

Best Performance by a Leading Actor in a Musical

David Alvarez, Trent Kowalik, and Kiril Kulish ‚ Billy Elliot, The Musical
Gavin Creel, Hair
Brian d’Arcy James, Shrek The Musical
Constantine Maroulis, Rock of Ages
J. Robert Spencer, Next to Normal

The boys will win as it will make for good television and press.

Best Performance by a Leading Actress in a Musical

Stockard Channing, Pal Joey
Sutton Foster, Shrek The Musical
Allison Janney, 9 to 5: The Musical
Alice Ripley, Next to Normal
Josefina Scaglione, West Side Story

Alice Ripley is giving a full-fledged leading actress performance from what I gather. Scaglione could be the dark horse.

Best Performance by a Featured Actor in a Play

John Glover, Waiting for Godot
Zach Grenier, 33 Variations
Stephen Mangan, The Norman Conquests
Paul Ritter, The Norman Conquests
Roger Robinson, Joe Turner’s Come and Gone

A guess.

Best Performance by a Featured Actress in a Play

Hallie Foote, Dividing the Estate
Jessica Hynes, The Norman Conquests
Marin Ireland, Reasons to Be Pretty
Angela Lansbury, Blithe Spirit
Amanda Root, The Norman Conquests

You have to vote for Jessica Fletcher. I mean, come on.

Best Performance by a Featured Actor in a Musical

David Bologna, Billy Elliot, The Musical
Gregory Jbara, Billy Elliot, The Musical
Marc Kudisch, 9 to 5: The Musical
Christopher Sieber, Shrek The Musical
Will Swenson, Hair

Gregory Jbara seems like a nice guy, so I want him to win.

Best Performance by a Featured Actress in a Musical

Jennifer Damiano, Next to Normal
Haydn Gwynne, Billy Elliot, The Musical
Karen Olivo, West Side Story
Martha Plimpton, Pal Joey
Carole Shelley, Billy Elliot, The Musical

Hydn won all the awards for this role in the West End. However, Plimpton and Olivo were both well-reviewed.

Best Scenic Design of a Play

Dale Ferguson, Exit the King
Rob Howell, The Norman Conquests
Derek McLane, 33 Variations
Michael Yeargan, Joe Turner’s Come and Gone

Guessing!

Best Scenic Design of a Musical

Robert Brill, Guys and Dolls
Ian MacNeil, Billy Elliot, The Musical
Scott Pask, Pal Joey
Mark Wendland, Next to Normal

A guess, although I understand the G&D set is confusing, the Pal Joey set looks cheap, and the Next to Normal set is mostly lighting.

Best Costume Design of a Play

Dale Ferguson, Exit the King
Jane Greenwood, Waiting for Godot
Martin Pakledinaz, Blithe Spirit
Anthony Ward, Mary Stuart

Period costumes always win. So I choose Sir Ward. (Is he a Sir? I’m just assuming.)

Best Costume Design of a Musical

Gregory Gale, Rock of Ages
Nicky Gillibrand, Billy Elliot, The Musical
Tim Hatley, Shrek The Musical
Michael McDonald, Hair

Shrek’s costumes look ugly, and Hair is just a bunch of hippie shit. Rock of Ages costumes look trashy and fun. Billy Elliot cannot win for some tutus.

Best Lighting Design of a Play

David Hersey, Equus
David Lander, 33 Variations
Brian MacDevitt, Joe Turner’s Come and Gone
Hugh Vanstone, Mary Stuart

I saw a picture for Equus that had lights and fog. I like that shit.

Best Lighting Design of a Musical

Kevin Adams, Hair
Kevin Adams, Next to Normal
Howell Binkley, West Side Story
Rick Fisher, Billy Elliot, The Musical

There look like there are a lot of lights in the N2N set, so more is always better in my book!

Best Sound Design of a Play

Paul Arditti, Mary Stuart
Gregory Clarke, Equus
Russell Goldsmith, Exit the King
Scott Lehrer and Leon Rothenberg, Joe Turner’s Come and Gone

Clearly.

Best Sound Design of a Musical

Acme Sound Partners, Hair
Paul Arditti, Billy Elliot, The Musical
Peter Hylenski, Rock of Ages
Brian Ronan, Next to Normal

Sure.

Best Direction of a Play

Phyllida Lloyd, Mary Stuart
Bartlett Sher, Joe Turner’s Come and Gone
Matthew Warchus, God of Carnage
Matthew Warchus, The Norman Conquests

Totally.

Best Direction of a Musical

Stephen Daldry, Billy Elliot, The Musical
Michael Greif, Next to Normal
Kristin Hanggi, Rock of Ages
Diane Paulus, Hair

It must be hard to direct a sure-fire hit.

Best Choreography

Karole Armitage, Hair
Andy Blankenbuehler, 9 to 5: The Musical
Peter Darling, Billy Elliot, The Musical
Randy Skinner, Irving Berlin’s White Christmas

White Christmas? What?

Best Orchestrations

Larry Blank, Irving Berlin’s White Christmas
Martin Koch, Billy Elliot, The Musical
Michael Starobin and Tom Kitt, Next to Normal
Danny Troob and John Clancy, Shrek The Musical

I do enjoy the orchestrations for White Christmas. Very old school. But Billy will win, since it’s still running.

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Significant omissions: Megan Hilty (in place of Allison Janney for 9 to 5), Daniel Radcliff (who gave a critically lauded performance in Equus and was naked!), Bill Irwin (who I just assume should be nominated), John Goodman (who got rave reviews for Godot) and NOTHING for Desire Under the Elms?? — not even Carla Gugino, who I thought would be a frontrunner to win best actress???.